What if radio walked away from the not-so-golden years 2015-19?
Earlier this week, I received a tip that Alternative KROQ Los Angeles had done just that. It didn’t quite pan out. When I looked at a log, KROQ was still playing a dozen songs from those years, totaling 16 spins over the course of the day—an hour’s worth of music out of 24 hours. But dropping the late ‘10s seemed plausible for a moment, particularly after XETRA (91X) San Diego gave up most of its post-2005 gold last month and Country KPLX (The Wolf) phased out currents last week.
In Alternative, in particular, late ‘10s product was an easy target for format critics: detractors heard that era as a lot of anonymous pop music that never crossed over and never went to library. The rise of Billie Eilish and bedroom pop left some conflicted. Those songs that did break through—“Feel It Still,” “Broken,” “Trampoline,” the Twenty One Pilots hits—stayed in power for a year, highlighting the lack of other hits and making even the big songs particularly joyless after a while. Only the experiments with TikTok pop two years ago put those detractors in even more of a “Mood.”
But the late ‘10s weren’t really a product boom for most formats. Top 40 and Country had the most dramatic product issues, particularly because they’d started out the decade with such promise. Alternative had already become a niche format, ranked highest in an 18-34 cell most diminished by streaming. The same had happened to Hip-Hop and even renewed excitement about the product didn’t translate into a ratings uptick once the hotline started blinging again.
There was one format boom in the late ‘10s. Contemporary Christian saw praise-and-worship music intersect with increasingly bright/poppy mainstream titles. Christian AC was one of the few formats to consistently grow in terms of the number of hits. Adult Contemporary and Adult R&B were successful formats as well in those years. Both formats underwent a change in the type of currents they played, but in those gold-based formats, currents were less of an issue.
The whole nature of radio station gold libraries is that songs and eras disappear and return. The ‘90s were once thought to be a lost decade by programmers; now, it’s clear that some songs will return, but we’re still sorting out how many and which ones. Throughout the ‘00s, ballads by Creed and Nickelback were reliably found at the top of pop radio’s music tests. As the new decade arrived, with fun, uptempo dance/pop music dominant, those songs mostly disappeared within months. Listeners no longer wanted to brood.
As current-based formats struggle for a foothold, we’re likely to see many more “contemporary” stations that aren’t quite as contemporary. I decided to take a look at our major contemporary music formats and how much they were relying on music from 2015-19 to begin with. Looking at the 200 most played recurrent and gold titles for each format in BDSradio, the breakdown is:
- Christian AC – 52%
- Country – 47%
- Mainstream Top 40 – 42%
- Adult Top 40 – 37%
- R&B/Hip-Hop – 37%
- Rhythmic Top 40 – 36%
- Adult Contemporary – 11%
- Alternative – 11%
- Triple-A – 10% (in part because the pipeline for even newer music keeps flowing)
- Adult R&B – 9%
- Active Rock – 4%
What would programmers in other formats lose if they, hypothetically, just decided to walk away from, or at least lessen their dependence, on the late ‘10s?
Country is the hardest period for programmers to negotiate. The late ‘10s have been overtaxed by a format that still wants to be “No. 1 for New Country” but not aggressive on new music. If more stations follow KPLX’s lead, some will likely lean in on those songs even more.
- The late ‘10s are the ascent of Luke Combs, Kane Brown, and a pre-controversy Morgan Wallen, as well as the dominance of Thomas Rhett;
- But they’re also the moment when “bro country” softened to “boyfriend country”;
- If you consider the era “too pop,” it’s the time of Dan + Shay, Bebe Rexha, and Old Dominion;
- It’s also a period when female artists are represented, but by only a handful of songs. If you listen to a hit-driven major-market Country station, you can pretty much count on hearing “Die of a Broken Heart” by Maddie + Tae before too long.
Mainstream Top 40 leans heavily on a few smashes from late 2019—Post Malone’s “Circles,” Dua Lipa’s “Don’t Stop Now,” Harry Styles’ “Adore You.” (“Blinding Lights” is also nominally from 2019, but took hold for almost everybody in 2020.) The late ‘10s saw Ariana Grande, Malone, and Ed Sheeran change the way that songs were released and consumed. The era began with Justin Timberlake’s last smash, then saw Shawn Mendes and Charlie Puth claim his franchise.
For me, 2015-19 is a lost period for Mainstream Top 40 in particular, marked by the moment when producer-driven EDM pop slowed down to a joyless crawl and every new hit meandered on to the radio heralded by a similar manipulated vocal sample. It was also the time when hearing the same artist every 20 minutes became common. Over the last three years, available pop product has improved but been limited by a programming strategy that makes it hard for new songs to take hold as powers and keeps the top of the charts stagnant.
Adult Top 40 by its nature relies heavily on CHR music from the late ‘10s. Its most-played titles from that era include most of the above, but are even heavier on the mid-to-down EDM pop and overly sincere male ballads that give the era a lot of its sourness. Adult Contemporary, with its broader era range, is able to better cherry-pick the era, but still has some of the trap pop that never seemed like a true fit. (The best example, Katy Perry’s “Dark Horse,” is from 2013 but set the tone for much of what came after.)
Hip-Hop/R&B is where things most dramatically change, propelled by the power of streaming. The late ‘10s are marked by Roddy Ricch, Fetty Wap, Lil Baby and a pre-controversy Da Baby. The period begins with Kendrick Lamar and Cardi B’s big moments and continues with the rise of Megan Thee Stallion and other ‘80s/’90s-inspired female rappers. The early ‘10s were often said to have few stars beyond Drake; the late ‘10s give us “God’s Plan” and “Hotline Bling.”
Rhythmic Top 40 gives us most of the above, but even more streaming-driven moments (Arizona Zervas), more reggaeton and urbano Latin crossovers, and the rise of Lizzo and Doja Cat.
Adult R&B continued its shift from heritage artists with the rise of new female balladry from Ella Mai, H.E.R., Snoh Allegra, and more. There were also Hip-Hop titles shared with Mainstream R&B radio but which found more of a place in the Adult R&B gold library—Lil Duval’s “Smile,” Wale’s “On Chill.” There are many reasons for the endurance of Adult R&B but programmers seem happy with a body of recent music that takes up a relatively small portion of the hour anyway.
Triple-A had many of the same hits as Alternative (“Feel It Still,” “Broken”), but was able to lean a little more comfortably into the indie/pop side of the format. Foster the People’s “Sit Next To Me,” Alice Merton’s “No Roots,” and the Revivalists’ “Wish I Knew You” are among the most-played here, but not at Alternative.
Active Rock had such an issue with currents in the late ‘10s that we saw the rise of the “next generation Classic Rock” station, playing Active’s grunge and Linkin Park core library, but without any recent music. Not surprisingly, almost no songs from that era “went to library” at Active. Two of the best known that did are remakes—Disturbed’s “The Sound of Silence” and Bad Wolves’ “Zombie.” (Alternative has its equivalent; the success of Weezer’s “Africa” also became a focal point for grumbling about the format.)
When programmers at pop radio turned away from Creed, Nickelback (and the likes of Switchfoot) in the late ‘00s/early ‘10s, they were already in the middle of another musical boom. By then, it was clear that we were meant to live for so much more. In the early 2020s, we see a small uptick in the quality of available product that hasn’t yet translated into a ratings boom for any contemporary format.
If a rebound for current product can still happen at any format, it depends on radio to find the best way to both take from and send music to the streaming world. It’s also hard to know how current product can thrive at such an unhappy time, although I believe now is when we most need that to happen. How music from the late ‘10s and early ‘20s endures depends on both the music and the times that come after.
This story first appeared on radioinsight.com